New study outlines 2040 milestones to keep the EU on track for climate neutrality

April 2026 – A new modelling study published in Nature Communications provides guidance on the emissions reductions and technology transitions the European Union must achieve by 2040 to remain on a cost-effective pathway to climate neutrality by 2050.

Using the integrated assessment model REMIND, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research explored hundreds of scenarios that vary key uncertainties, including near-term emissions reductions, energy demand, clean technology costs, and carbon dioxide removal capacity. Across these scenarios, the study finds that the EU would need to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by around 86 % by 2040 relative to 1990, substantially deeper than a linear extension of current targets.

The two main pillars to realise this transformation in a cost-efficient way are the expansion of renewable electricity, and the electrification of energy demands. Electricity generation from wind and solar would expand seven-fold compared to 2018–2022 levels, and electricity would supply nearly half of final energy demand by 2040, representing a strong electrification of transport, buildings, and industry. The analysis further shows that demand for natural gas and crude oil could be about 60 % lower by 2040 than in recent years, strengthening Europe’s energy independence.

Well-defined 2040 milestones can provide clearer investment signals, reduce long-term costs, and enhance energy security, while robustly supporting the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality goal across a wide range of future uncertainties.

Rodrigues, R., Pietzcker, R., Sitarz, J., Merfort, A., Hasse, R., Hoppe, J., Pehl, M., Ershad, A.M., Muessel, J., Schreyer, F., Baumstark, L., Luderer, G., 2026. 2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the EU Green Deal. Nat Commun 17, 3417.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71159-8