Robust sensitivity analysis to uncertainties in environmental and socio-economic scenarios: A perspective from a global socio-ecological system model

Uncertainties exist in modelling and simulating complex socio ecological systems due to unknown, unmeasurable, and uncontrollable occurrence probabilities of future conditions, which are often expressed through multiple representative future scenarios.

Uncertainties exist in modelling and simulating complex socio-ecological systems due to unknown, unmeasurable, and uncontrollable occurrence probabilities of future conditions, which are often expressed through multiple representative future scenarios. The sensitivities of uncertain scenario parameters that comprise these scenarios may be different under different scenarios. To largely reduce unnecessary efforts of refining insensitive parameters, it is helpful to identify scenario parameters that remain sensitive in all plausible future scenarios. Based on a well-established global socio-ecological system model—Functional Enviro-economic Linkages Integrated neXus (FeliX), this study conducted robust sensitivity analyses of the scenario parameters that defined five representative environmental and socio-economic scenarios. The study explored their sensitivities on eco-environmental carrying capacity represented by six planetary boundary (PB) indicators.

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