Publication

Unaddressed non-energy use in the chemical industry can undermine fossil fuels phase-out

Around 13% of fossil fuels globally are used for non-combustion purposes. Fossil fuel processing plants, such as petroleum refineries, exhibit interdependent material and energy system dynamics, making the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems more challenging without addressing the non-energy outputs. This study explores the future role of fossil fuels for non-energy purposes in climate-stringent scenarios with restrictions on alternative feedstock availability, focusing on the primary chemicals sector. Using a global integrated assessment model with detailed refining and primary chemicals sectors, findings across various scenarios reveal that up to 62% of total feedstock use in the chemical sector could be provided by alternative sources by 2050. This would require significant scale-up in biomass utilisation and carbon capture technologies. Annual CO2 emissions from the chemical sector could be reduced to as low as −1Gt CO2 by the same year if carbon storage in non-recycled and non-incinerated bioplastics is accounted for.

Zanon-Zotin, M., Baptista, L.B., Draeger, R. et al. Unaddressed non-energy use in the chemical industry can undermine fossil fuels phase-out. Nat Commun 15, 8050 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52434-y

More publications

Reducing material requirements while decarbonising the Spanish economy: from a green growth to a postgrowth paradigm

30 July 2026

The transition to a low-carbon economy is expected to increase material requirements, as low-carbon technologies (LCTs) typically require more materials than fossil fuel-based energy systems. Here, we extend the MEDEAS-Spain Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to improve the representation of material requirements, stocks, and flows. Key novelties are: (i) the use

Climate ambition explained: key indicators and net-zero target projections using machine learning

29 July 2026

This study uses advanced machine learning algorithms to analyze the indicators influencing national climate ambition in 2030 emissions targets and net-zero pledges. By focusing on technical and social feasibility, and political credibility, we assess climate ambition of countries through cumulative per capita emissions from 2021 to the net-zero target year.

A harmonised dataset for Earth system foundation models

28 July 2026

Foundation models for Earth systems have so far been trained primarily on physical climate and weather data, with limited representation of the human systems that both drive and respond to environmental change. The lack of a unified global training resource that combines climate, land, ocean, cryosphere, infrastructure, hazards, and socioeconomic