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The impact of policy and model uncertainties on emissions projections of the Paris Agreement pledges

Tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement climate goal requires understanding the 2030 emission levels implied by countries’ National Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, key uncertainties and assumptions impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections implied by the NDCs. This study analyses this impact, both globally and for major emitting countries. Read the

Tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement climate goal requires understanding the 2030 emission levels implied by countries’ National Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, key uncertainties and assumptions impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections implied by the NDCs. This study analyses this impact, both globally and for major emitting countries.

Read the full paper here

More news from the community

New community documentation portal released

The Model Documentation and Transparency working group has released a rebuilt documentation portal, with a common structure for describing model scope, versions and assumptions.

Overshoot Conference 2026: Launch of Call for Abstracts

When? November 24 – 25, 2026 Where? Beijing, China Hosted by Tsinghua University and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Submission Deadline: August 21, 2026 We’re pleased to share that abstract submissions are open for the Overshoot Conference 2026. Following the success of the inaugural Overshoot Conference in Laxenburg, Austria